Crypto Prediction Platform Polymarket Was Utterly Wrong About the New Pope

Off Base Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market where users can place bets on events ranging from national elections to natural disasters, got the Pope odds way wrong. The Vatican shocked the world today when the Chicago-born American and Peruvian Cardinal Robert Prevost was elected to the papacy, taking the name Pope Leo XIV before taking to the balcony of St. Peter's Basilica to greet the world as Holy Father. Prevost is the first American Pope, and appears to be the first Pope to retweet Catholic Snoopy posts. Though Prevost was an ally of his predecessor, the late Pope Francis, he was […]

May 8, 2025 - 22:34

Crypto Prediction Platform Polymarket Was Utterly Wrong About the New Pope

Cardinal Robert Prevost shocked the world, succeeding Pope Francis to become the first American Pope. Polymarket bettors were surprised, too.

Papal Predictor

Polymarket, the crypto-based prediction market where users can place bets on events ranging from national elections to natural disasters, got the Pope odds way wrong.

Those forecasts were reflected in Polymarket as well as the similar platform Kalshi, which both took a hard turn toward Parolin as the public caught sight of white smoke, according to Axios. Meanwhile, market betters had Prevost hovering around a one-to-two percent chance of becoming the next Pope.

And yet, in a stunning twist of fate, it was the American-born Robert Prevost — a graduate of Villanova and the conclaver with the highest likelihood of ever consuming a hot dog and/or $1.99 pizza slice from Costco — who clinched the title. According to a screenshot posted to X-formerly-Twitter by Brew Markets, Prevost was sitting at around 0.03 percent when his shock election was announced.

In short, Polymarketers were absolutely blindsided — highlighting how Polymarket's oft-exalted predictive prowess isn't always all it's cracked up to be.

Robert F. Prevost has been elected the first American pope in history.
Polymarket gave him just a 0.3% chance of being chosen. pic.twitter.com/QzD41JYpU9
— Brew Markets (@brewmarkets) May 8, 2025

Vatican Bombshell

The Vatican shocked the world today when the Chicago-born American and Peruvian was named Pope Leo XIV before taking to the balcony of St. Peter's Basilica to greet the world as Holy Father.

Prevost is the first American Pope, and appears to be the first Pope to retweet Catholic Snoopy posts.

Though Prevost was an ally of his predecessor, the late Pope Francis, he was by no means seen as the frontrunner; most expected either Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin or Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle to ascend to the papacy.

The hard swing towards Parolin in the moments before the announcement broke was likely due to the conclave's speediness, as Axios pointed out.

Anyway, if you're a Polymarket who bet on the American Prevost to win the papacy, email us!

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